The Success Formula of Rod Blagojevich

Illinois' Governor Rod Blagojevich has burst onto the national scene.  Not in a good way, obviously.  What's surprising, though, is how people are reacting to the fact that today he returned to work and has shown no inclination to resign.  They seemed surprised.  They seem perplexed that he did not immediately resign.  One newsperson on superstation WGN television said he thought this case was in greater need of a psychologist to explain the governor's behavior than a lawyer.  I could not help but chuckle when I heard an NBC political analyst on "Countdown" say the "logical" thing for the Governor to do was resign.  None of these people are taking the time to think about the Governor's Success Formula.

Rod Blagojevich is the product of some pretty rough-and-tumble politics, still carried out in the wards around Chicago.  This is not to imply any wrongdoing on the part of Chicago's Mayor or his administration, nor any of the state employees of Illinois.  But reality is that for many years politics in Chicago meant, "you wash my hands and I'll wash yours."  While things have changed at the top, for many people in the bowels of government work, this Success Formula was ingrained.  For many, if you want your street plowed of snow early, you make sure you contribute to the Alderman's re-election fund - and that was considered absolutely normal.  In the old Secretary of State's office you could buy a truck driver's license without even taking the test.  Even though several leaders have changed, there's been no real Disruption in local politics and so for many participants, many work teams and some functional groups, this Success Formula has endured.  (Although the Secretary of State's office is a model example of change - and nothing at all like it was for many years under previous Secretaries.)

Governor Blagojevich got his "jump start" into politics by marrying the daughter of a powerful Chicago Alderman - Richard Mell.   Mell has been powerful for a long time, and as a result he's learned how to play big time, hard ball politics.  You don't back down easily, and you play each and every situation to win - not tie - and certainly not to withdraw.  You never quite know what might happen, and those who attack may be attacked before they can make something stick.  Play to win, all the time, every time.  Horse trading is part of the game. 

I would not be surprised to learn that similar hard-ball poiticing is common in many city halls and state offices across America - and between most of our representatives in the Congress and Senate.  Even Presidents learn how to make compromises - albeit a lot more subtly and ethically than how we're hearing the Governor did it.  To some extent, he seems less the "political criminal" (as characterized by the U.S. Attorney) than the politically naive who got too high without the proper training in "how to get things done" politically.

A result of his training was that the Governor learned to play to win.  Never give up.  Thus, he's utterly predictable.  From his point of view, so far he's been convicted of nothing.  He may be disliked right now - but there are many examples of politicians who see themselves publicly rehabilitated.  In the 1980s a highly discounted politician, who had not even bothered to pay taxes for more than a decade, was elected Chicago's mayor and was quite popular (Harold Washington).  Why would the Governor give up?  Why resign?  He still has the power of the governorship, and any effort to impeach him will take months - if it should succeed.  Until the day comes when he absolutely, positively has to stop - why stop?

That's the way of Success Formulas.  They don't work by other people's rules.  They don't work by consensus, or public opinion, or even common sense.  George Wallace extolled the virtues of segregation and even launched a campaign for the Presidency long after segregation was widely deplored in America.  Richard Nixon felt humiliated as Vice-President by the lack of respect he was given from Eisenhower - including a complete lack of endorsement when he ran for President.  And of course he lost his first run for President, and he was not well liked in his own party.  Yet, he successfully positioned himself to win 2 terms as President before resigning in disgrace due to his involvement in ordering the Watergate break-in.  None of these people did what would seem "normal" to most people.  But they were entirely consistent with their Success Formulas.

We can expect that Governor Blagojevich will work very hard to protect himself, his family and his future. After all, if you listen to the counts against him you can see that was exactly what he was doing as Governor.  There is no reason to think he will change that behavior now.  While he is now severely challenged, and he has a big stack of problems, he has not been Disrupted - and he has not taken on any White Space where he would try anything new.  To the contrary, he is in the same job, with the same people, doing the same work.  What he will do is very predictable - it will be the action most likely to help himself and his family.  You don't need to be a psychiatrist to understand the Governor - you just need to look at his past and understand his Success Formula.  And notice that nothing has happened which is likely to make the Governor think he should change that Success Formula now. 

After all, his predecessor (a Republican) didn't change his Success Formula and now the #2 Democrat in the U.S. Senate (Dick Durbin) is asking the President to pardon him for past wrongdoings so he can get out of prison.  Why wouldn't Blagojevich ask the incoming President to pardon him in exchange for stepping down from the Governorship (for the good of the state)?  To this day, many people think that was "the deal" Nixon made with Congressman Ford when he gave him the Vice-Presidency - which led to him becoming the first President to never be voted on by the American population when Nixon resigned.  It was rather quickly that the new President Ford pardoned ex-President Nixon "for the good of the country."

Never underestimate the power of Success Formulas.  People will follow them long, long after their results have proven unsatisfactory.  Lock-in, established years (often decades) before keeps the person going in the same direction despite the lack of recent success.  As small wins come in, they reinforce that the Success Formula will work again, if just adhered to closely enough.  And many leaders - in government or in industry (don't forget Bernie Ebbers at Worldcom or Mr. Skilling at Enron) will deny wrongdoing and remain committed to their course even in the face of considerable evidence that to change would be more beneficial.

Of course, if you allow yourself to be Disrupted - and you keep White Space alive in your life - you can avoid this problem.  You can learn to adapt your Success Formula to produce better results as environments around you shift.  But that has not been the way of Governor Blagojevich.  Do you allow Disruptions and White Space in your life?  Or are you risking a drift into weaker results while remaining tied to old Lock-ins?

Comments

[Bob Morris]

Good points. Too often people continue doing the same thing long after it becomes apparent that it is no longer working or even counterproductive. "If you keep doing what you're doing, you keep getting what you're getting."

As for Blago, the best thing he can do is try to cut a deal that keeps his wife out of prison so she can raise the kids.

The First Law of Politics is never be near the scene of the crime. I doubt anyone is returning his calls now. Among other reasons, it's a given his line is tapped.